Trump-Biden debate to focus on presentation, not policy: Expert

BTIG managing director and director of policy research Isaac Boltansky joins Market Domination to discuss what he expects from the first Biden-Trump presidential debate, airing this evening on CNN at 9 p.m. ET.

"If you're looking to feel good about the democracy, this might not be where you want to go this evening," Boltansky highlights. He emphasizes that the debate will foreground presentation more than policy and expects Trump to be pressed on his abortion stance. As immigration and inflation are key focus areas for voters, Boltansky thinks Biden will blame corporate America for inflation.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination.

This article was written by Gabriel Roy

Transcription de la vidéo

For the first time in us history, a sitting president and former president will meet in a debate in what could be a pivotal moment in a neck and neck election and joining us now is Isaac Boltanski BT IG is Director of policy Research Isaac.

It's good to see you.

So the, the moment has come, Isaac, the big debate is here, two men enter.

Uh what are you looking for?

Isaac?

What are you, what are you gonna be watching for?

You know, 1st, 1st of all, I, I would just say if you're looking to feel good about the democracy, this might not be where you wanna go this evening.

Maybe you go watch, you know, the end of Mr Smith goes to Washington or, you know, even the, the president's speech from Independence Day, like those would make you feel a little bit better about democracy than what we're gonna see tonight.

But you know, here's what I've told my clients.

It's not gonna be about policy tonight, right?

It's gonna be about presentation and what I've heard from operatives and clients and market participants and everyone is, it's gonna be a real focus on the two CS, that's comportment and capacity.

So for Trump, is he gonna appear overly abrasive and rely on ad hominem attacks eternal some voters at the margin for Biden.

Is he going to look sharp?

Is he going to look capable for another four years?

So that's what I think we're looking for tonight.

It's going to be much more about tone and appearance than it is going to be about uh policy substance.

Now, both Trump and Biden have let's call them very spirited camps of supporters, but there are still many Americans out there that are unsure.

What do you think could be said tonight?

What do you think people could see that could potentially sway either side?

Yeah, here's what I'm looking for for on the Biden side.

I want to see how he responds to attacks about immigration and inflation.

I think those are two key issues, especially when you really peel back the onion here and you realize this election is going to be divided, excuse me, decided by voters in just six states and in those six states, immigration and inflation are two key areas of focus.

And I think the president, President Biden is going to spend a lot of time talking about junk fees and beating up on corporate America saying that they are, they are driven by greed, inflation and and shrink inflation and things like that.

I don't know how that's going to play.

So I'm interested to see uh what uh that is framed as tonight on the Trump side.

Look, I don't think he's going to face really pointed questions about reproductive rights and his conviction.

So let's see how that plays out.

I mean, we've got to keep in mind the election is still 100 3030 days away.

We are still, this is the earliest we've ever had one of these uh debates.

So we've got a long, long road ahead Isaac.

How many people do you think?

Tune in and watch this tonight?

You think viewership is meaningful?

Because I, I mean, on the one hand, it's the first debate, you know, on the other hand, Isaac, it's summer.

I mean, a lot of people, I, I don't know how many people think this is how they want to spend a summer evening.

But what, what do you think?

Look, I think viewership is going to be, is going to be meaningful.

And I think really, for me, what's most important is how does it play tomorrow?

Right?

What sound bites do we get?

What B roll do we get?

What video are we seeing showing tomorrow morning on your channel and elsewhere?

So, whether it's, it's a massive number or not, I don't know how much I care.

I think a lot of this about how it plays the following morning and I can tell you for folks in DC who aren't used to staying up that late, there's a lot of focus that's gonna be placed on the last half hour of this 90 minute debate.

Because again, I think everyone is looking to see how these two men who are hovering around being octogenarians are able to handle 90 minutes in this setting.

And what that tells us about their capacity and, and, and mental faculty uh when, as it relates to their capacity to do another four years, Isaac, I have a bit of a loaded question for you.

What are the chances that it's not Trump versus Biden in the end?

And one of those candidates potentially drops out, the chances are exceedingly low.

I think that we need to all come to terms with the fact that this is going to be Biden V Trump.

Um Of course, anything is possible especially on live TV, but I have seen nothing yet to survive to suggest that any alternative is being contemplated.

And I think that when we discuss that alternative, it is, it is nothing more than hope driving it.

There has been nothing from a substantive perspective suggesting that Biden will step aside.

We have seen no work whatsoever from the party to point to another candidate.

And then on the Trump side, he controls the party infrastructure as is.

So look, I think this is Biden V Trump and I think we need to all buckle up because again, it's going to be a long road, Isaac, you know, we, we know it's been neck and neck, um, this race.

But have you seen anything in the polling e even, you know, slight shifts and changes either nationally or in the swing states has kind of caught your eye.

Isaac.

Yeah, look.

So we spend a lot of time looking at, at the, the six states that will decide this and I think, uh, the way that I've sort of split this up is you have three states that are, um, the Sun Belt States.

We're talking about Nevada, Georgia and Arizona.

And then you have, you know, um the Rust Belt States, if you will, and that's Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania Trump's lead in the Sun Belt continues to grow.

And for that, I continue to look at immigration as an animating factor.

That is one that I, I continue to see and that, that lead that Trump has, has been sustained despite the Biden administration taking some steps on immigration in the Southern border.

So that's one thing that I continue to watch and I think is going to be key, especially as there is still expected to be another surge of, of migration at the southern border in the next few months.

You mentioned that hush money verdict for Trump, he was found guilty there.

What do you think the chances are though that, that impacts his ability to win, especially when it comes to his base?

Yeah, I have, I have heard uh a few 1000 different opinions on how that verdict plays and I don't think any of them have it right yet.

I don't think any of us can really tell because this is complicated and there are nuances to it.

Um, obviously it has an impact on, on some swing voters, but you also saw a massive increase in Trump's fundraising around it.

Right?

So none of this is, is cut and dry.

I think it's all nebulous inherently.

Um, but what I'm gonna be focused on tonight is how much of this evening is personal attacks, right?

How much of it is Biden going after Trump for those convictions or Trump going after Biden for, for his son's conviction?

And what does that do to the, to the voter at the margin in terms of their willingness to show up at all?

Right.

And I think that ultimately, that's the one question that I continue asking myself is who has the lead on enthusiasm, right?

Because I do think it's going to be a lower voter turnout year given that no one is that excited about these two candidates.

And if that's right, I think that Trump is, is the the leader in the club clubhouse, at least a little bit given that his voters tend to show up and tend to do so enthusiastically.

All right.

Well, a lot will be riding on that debate later tonight, Isaac Botany.

Thank you so much for joining us today.