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ProShares Short S&P500 (SH)

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  • P
    Peter
    $SHAK conversation
    Insider dumping accelerates as WS mafia "analysts" are pushing PTs up.
    * Randall J. Garutti Oct 15 2020 Sale $70.27 #Sh 45,000 - $3,162,197
    Ernst & Young LLP is the auditor of Shake Shack Inc. ($SHAK) and SSE Holdings LLC. (see TRA / Tax Receivable Agreement payments to LLC holders).

    === 10-18-2020 These IMPLODING, SCANDAL-PLAGUED COMPANIES SHARED a Big Four auditor - Regulators are scrutinizing whether the accounting giant ERNST & YOUNG — now widely known as EY — missed red flags or failed to pursue them.

    This year, $2 Billion is missing at Wirecard, once a HIGH-FLYING FINTECH DARLING, which is now called "Enron of Germany", $300 million of sales was fabricated at a Chinese chain Luckin Coffee, $5 Billion in undisclosed debt discovered at two U.K. companies - NMC Health Plc and Finablr Plc, which owned the Travelex service. The overall COST to SHAREHOLDERS WAS ROUGHLY $30 BILLION.

    ALL HAD BEEN AUDITED BY ERNST & YOUNG. Last year, EY also audited OFFICE-SPACE COMPANY WeWork, which nearly collapsed under the weight of its debt when a planned IPO didn't go through, after potential investors found how much money WeWork was losing, load of debt and no reasonable "path to profitability".

    EY missed red flags at some of the companies ahead of their scandals, IT WAS OUTSIDERS WHO RAISED QUESTIONS. Now the regulators are examining EY's work.

    EY attracts the audit business using lower fees, to potentially get more lucrative consulting and other business. There appear to be close ties between EY and EXECUTIVES AND BOARD MEMBERS at some of its audit clients. EY, MORE THAN OTHER ACCOUNTING FIRMS, HAS FOCUSED ON AUDITING YOUNG, FAST-GROWING FIRMS. ===
  • P
    Peter
    $SHAK conversation
    * Daniel H. Meyer - - Nov 02 2020 - Sale $65.14 - #Sh 75,000 - $4,885,185
    * Daniel H. Meyer - - Nov 04 2020 - Sale $70.13 - #Sh 25,000 - $1,753,128
    In the past three months, Shake Shack insiders bought $0.00 and sold $28,953,606.00 in company stock.
    There is no pretense, no doubt that SHAK is a "laundromat" for WS cabal and insiders.

    * Shake Shack Inc : Cowen and Company raises price target to $62 from $55
    * Shake Shack Inc : Credit Suisse raises target price to $64 from $52, maintains Neutral
    * Shake Shack Inc : Deutsche Bank raises target price to $70 from $55
    * Shake Shack Inc : Goldman Sachs raises target price to $60 from $55
    * Shake Shack Inc : JP Morgan raises target price to $62 from $55, keeps Underweight
    * Shake Shack Inc : Jefferies raises target price to $62 from $50
    * Shake Shack Inc : Loop Capital raises target price to $83 from $78
    * Shake Shack Inc : MKM Partners raises fair value estimate to $65 from $54
    * Shake Shack Inc : Truist Securities raises target price to $64 from $58

    A sample of Jokes-R-Us / Joke's-On-You "analysts" that simply parrot Randy's STORY:

    CFRA / S&P : We RAISE our 12-month TARGET PRICE by $18 to $70, on 2021 price-to-sales of 3.8x, a STEEP PREMIUM VS. PEERS, noting SHAK's above-average GROWTH PROSPECTS. We WIDEN 2020 LOSS PER SHARE ESTIMATE by $0.20 to $0.70 and cut '21 EPS by $0.15 to $0.12. ... SHAK noted further SEQUENTIAL IMPROVEMENT in its key operating metrics in Q3 and through early Q4 . We see notable traction in the DIGITAL CHANNELS (about 60% of Q3 sales), fueled by expanded pacts with third-party delivery partners. ... Total revenue DECLINED 17% AS SAME-STORE SALES FELL 32%, albeit a notable SEQUENTIAL improvement.
    ---

    CS : Shake Shack Unit Growth Back on Track (yaaay!! CASH BURN, BABY, BURN)
    Research Analysts Lauren Silberman, Douglas Eisman

    EARNINGS: SHAK reported 3Q SSS of -31.7%, including TRAFFIC of -42% and price/mix of 10.3%, and a RESTAURANT MARGIN of 14.8%. SSS improved SEQUENTIALLY each month, including July -39%, August -34% and September -23%, and trends further improved into October at -21%. SHAK's BRANDED WEB/APP is the fastest growing channel, with sales 3x prior levels, and the integration of delivery directly in its app (TEST PLANNED end FY20) should support continued growth of the DIGITAL ECOSYSTEM. SHAK guided to 35-40 company-operated units in FY21, in-line with 2019, suggesting the company is ON TRACK TO RETURN TO ROBUST NEW UNIT GROWTH. The majority of the FY21 class will feature a Shack Track element, including CURBSIDE PICKUP...

    We believe the NEW FORMATS & ACCELERATED DIGITAL ADOPTION well position SHAK to increase its ADDRESSABLE MARKET OVER THE LONG-TERM, though at current valuation, we remain NEUTRAL.

    VALUATION: We are INCREASING our TP to $64 (from $52) based on ~23.5x (from ~21x) our NTM EBITDA in 12 months & supported by our DCF. Risks: unit growth/productivity, consumer spending, COVID-19 pandemic.

    ESTIMATE CHANGES: We are maintaining our FY21 EBITDA (~$81.5MM) and RAISING our FY22 EBITDA to ~$114MM (from ~$100MM).

    US Disclosure: Credit Suisse DOES AND SEEKS TO DO BUSINESS WITH COMPANIES COVERED IN ITS RESEARCH REPORTS. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a CONFLICT OF INTEREST that could AFFECT THE OBJECTIVITY OF THIS REPORT. ('nuf said?)
    ---

    Yaaay!! Use fraudulent "adjusted" EBITDA and DCF, increase already high multiple by >10% - why not, need to justify higher PT, and who pays attention or cares anyway? No matter higher expenses in nearly all categories, particularly labor (+ more bonus pay) due to COVID and locations; lower margins, and sharply lower AUV in newer lower-quality locations. But WOW!! - CURBSIDE PICKUP, INTEGRATION, "DIGITAL ECOSYSTEM" - better STORY every quarter, worse NUMBERS every quarter, higher PTs every quarter.
  • P
    Peter
    $SHAK conversation
    * Daniel H. Meyer Oct 01-02 2020 Sale $64.83 #Sh 75,000 - $1,765,642 Rec. Oct 05 2020

    $SHAK insiders stock dumping continues unabated, just as various investment banks' sell-side "analysts" (i.e. sales persons / insiders-pleasing stocks pushers) raising $SHAK Price Targets (PTs) and singing praises for increasing "digital" revenues (like that could go down from almost nothing, and comparing with the worst numbers of March lockdowns, even when their disastrous 2019Q4 numbers came in even before March and clearly reflected pre-COVID19 already poor economic environment specifically for SHAK, in part due to number of bonehead management decisions) - these "analysts are now trying to convince people that "rebranding" SHAK as "digital" burger joint chain (with higher expenses and still lower margins due in part to loss of sales of higher-ticket items like wine and "social ambiance" aspect that allowed them to sell otherwise unjustifiably higher-priced proteins and starch) will be the key to higher "growth" and "profitability"? Like, "Shake Shack's Sales Trends Are Improving After a 70% Weekly Dive" - you don't say, really?! How about comparing 2020 / 2021 burgers and shakes to 2019 burgers and shakes?

    What idiot would buy that, even when lockdowns or restrictions end? As "bill" on this board keeps saying - they have a 2000 basis points problem - their gross, operating and net margins keep going down (sure, at some point they will hit the "bottom" but not enough to ever be FCF profitable) while their expenses keep going up (despite quarter after quarter and year after year they promise that they "keep watching it closely" and "will do something" about it.

    SHAK is all about the "story" - "from one Madison Square Park hot dog cart to XYZ units" to "NYC beloved" "brand" etc. - and the "hope" of higher "growth" and mythical future profitability. Ask Forever 21, J. Crew, Toys'R'Us, Quiznos, Blimpie's, Red Robin Gormet Burgers, Habit and hundreds of others how it ends up. Broke and money-losing Fatburger / Fat Brands ($FAT, negative BV and sales of less than $20M) chain just bought HUNDREDS of Johnny Rocket units for $25M after taking a loan, and are looking for still MORE ACQUISITIONS, and to expand in California, and texas, and Chicago, and Alaska, and Singapore... And they don't need malls to attract traffic.

    All SHAK is doing is keep burning shareholders' cash to "buy revenues" and buying / accumulating total liabilities while shedding tangible assets, with WS keeping supplying them cash in exchange for debt or diluted shares (in last round of dilution, in March, WS bankers scored 30%-35% on new SHAK shares they sold to public) and INSIDERS cashing in their bonuses and options, in addition to fat salaries and tax benefits that flow to them instead of ordinary shareholders via TRA (Tax Receivable Agreement) of holding company SSE.

    But never fear - insiders supply the "story" and "investor conference presentations" and WS mafia supplies the cash and Price Targets "analysis" and "hope", and all is well (or will be some day in the future) with the SHAK... what a racket!
    10-06-2020
  • W
    Wall-E YiTz
    If you followed the trend of the market this past month you’d be a rich man/woman. This is what the (fed) wants you to do and what people are beginning to do. This my friends is when we should expect the building to collapse. Stick to your gut and don’t allow them to win.

    It’s a sad time. Don’t end up on the bottom of the hill.

    $SH
    $SQQQ
  • P
    Peter
    $SHAK conversation
    While WS sell-side "analysts" keep pushing up PTs, their trading desks assign insiders shares dumped at near round prices.
    * Randall J. Garutti - Oct 15 2020 - Sale $70.27 - #Sh 45,000 - $3,162,197
    * Randall J. Garutti - Oct 23 2020 - Sale $75.04 - #Sh 13,596 - $1,020,176
    * Daniel H. Meyer - - Oct 23 2020 - Sale $75.056 - #Sh 14,115 - $1,059,408
    * At prices ranging from $75.0000 to $75.3300, weighted average sales price.

    Danny Meyer's sell orders are usually multiples of 25K shares (75K on Oct 05, 50K on Sep 03 etc) so WS probably didn't have enough shares sold above $75 to assign to his account, even as much as they pushed to have $75 call options in the money on that Friday, Oct 23, right from the opening bell.
    $SHAK 2020-10-28
  • S
    Stephen
    $TLGT conversation
    It's traded the market cap now. #Sh x SP. Can't find a reason. At these prices could be a boiler room pump. Wish it was for real.
  • P
    Peter
    $SHAK conversation
    * Daniel H. Meyer Sep 10 2020 Sale $70.63 #Sh 25,000 - $1,765,642 Rec. Sep 14 2020
    * Tara Comonte Sep 10 2020 Sale $70.02 #Sh 2,985 - $209,008 Rec. Sep 14 2020
    As predicted, another dump of 25K shares from Danny Meyer at $70+ and from Tara Comonte, CFO / President. Confused why they are dumping why big institutional sell-side analysts keep raising Price Targets and saying that $SHAK has the most to benefit from COVID and freezing temps this fall and winter (see latest Farmer's Almanac for extremely cold and harsh 2020-2021 winter season in the Atlantic, Midwest, Mountain and Southeast regions) - just like last year? History may not repeat itself, but "analysts" sure do.
  • B
    Ben
    $CLDX conversation
    Outstanding X 2, $SH / 2. Writing on the wall:

    Up to 29,236,912 shares, assuming sales at a price of $8.76 per share, which was the closing price ofour co mmon stock on Nasdaq on June 11, 2020. The actual number of shares issued will vary depending on the sales price under this offering.
  • W
    Will
    Apple Inc.
    see what I was saying yesterday, someone else agrees The Steep Stock Market Sell-Off Doesn't Make Sense https://seekingalpha.com/article/4226589?source=ansh $SPY, $QQQ, $DIA, $IWM, $VOO, $SH, $SDS, $TZA, $TNA, $IVV, $SSO, $TQQQ, $UPRO, $SPXL, $RSP, $CRF, $SQQQ, $SPXS, $PSQ, $VFINX, $USA, $QLD, $UDOW, $DOG, $DXD, $UWM, $SDOW, $SCHX, $ZF, $DDM, $TWM, $URTY, $VV, $RWM, $EPS, $SRTY, $VTWO, $QQQE, $QQEW, $FEX, $JKD, $EQL, $SPLX, $EEH, $SPSM, $SPUU, $QQXT, $SFLA, $IWL, $SPDN, $SPXE, $SPXT, $FWDD, $EDOW, $OTPIX, $SYE, $JHML, $PPLC, $SMLL, $UDPIX, $GSEW, $SPXV, $EQWS, $ESGL, $HUSV, $RYARX, $SPXN, $CHGX, $DMRL, $RVRS, $SCAP, $DUSA, $USMC, $BIBL, $OMFS, $PMOM, $RYRSX
    Earnings growth remains healthly. The economy continues to grow. Equity valuation are at the lower end of their historical range.
    Earnings growth remains healthly. The economy continues to grow. Equity valuation are at the lower end of their historical range.
    seekingalpha.com
  • m
    mary ann
    What are u guys all paid advertisers?
  • T
    The_Future_Is_Now
    $ACB conversation
    Massive short squeeze coming... the shorts are scared $Sh!/#%1ess
  • b
    billw
    $SH conversation
    This is a keeper as the market will be correcting big time soon
  • C
    Chuck
    $OPTI conversation
    days like today, with 2 weeks of uncertainty... $SRTY $SQQQ $SDOW $SH $SPXS