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  • K
    Crescent Point Energy Corp.
    Blackstone Inc. co-founder Stephen Schwarzman said the world is facing energy shortages so severe they could cause social unrest.

    His comments were echoed by Larry Fink, who said there’s a high probability of oil soon reaching $100 a barrel, especially with many governments and investors pushing back against investments in fossil fuels.

    “Inflation, we are in a new regime,” said Fink, chairman of BlackRock Inc, the world’s biggest asset manager.

    “There are many structural reasons for that. Short term policy related to environmentalism, in terms of restricting supply of hydrocarbons, has created energy inflation and we are going to be living with that for some time.”

    Several analysts have said that European countries could halt gas exports to neighbors if winter’s colder than normal and prices keep rising.

  • D
    $VLO conversation
    MS --3Q EPS Preview: Rising Tide -- Oct 18, 2021 #MPC #PSX
    Industry indicators strengthening as gasoline and diesel demand remain robust; jet is starting to look healthier.

    Demand data points since our launch have been strong. Jet fuel, the laggard to this point, has seen demand trend closer to the 5Y average, while diesel demand has been exceptionally strong. Product cracks are reflecting these improvements, with both diesel and jet cracks moving back towards their pre-COVID levels. Meanwhile, gasoline cracks have come down somewhat vs. our prior deck, but net-net, our price deck for 2022 has moved materially higher (~$2-3/bbl). Regionally, Midwest and Midcon cracks have strengthened the most vs. our prior update, generally resulting in more significant revisions for inland-oriented refiners like MPC and HFC. We do not expect the market will fully pay for these high prices on the curve right now, but we do think it will nonetheless reward beats-and-raises across the group this quarter.

    Picks into earnings and what we are watching: We are generally in line with consensus in 3Q, so our tactical picks are focused on revisions to 4Q21 and 2022 — we expect the largest positive near-term revisions out of MPC and VLO on the large cap side, and DK and PBF among the small/mid caps. Meanwhile, we see more limited near-term revisions to PSX and HFC. We expect the overall demand recovery will be front and center, but beyond this, biofuels have been the most topical point in our investor conversations. Based on the current project pipeline, there is growing concern that the industry is already set to overbuild biofuels capacity, but there are potential mitigating factors on both the demand (more states adopting Low Carbon Fuel Standards) and supply side (project slippage/cancellation). MPC and HFC will likely have the most attention on their projects, as MPC has yet to share a fully-loaded budget and HFC is currently running a bit over budget vs. initial guidance. We expect updates on Hurricane Ida's impact will be given, but only see PSX's Alliance facility as at risk of serious investment need, or potential sale/shutdown.

    Raising estimates and price targets on higher price deck. As discussed above, our average cracks are ~$2-3/bbl higher in 2022. We are risking our capture assumptions somewhat, and assume a certain degree of multiple compression on these high values, as we do not expect the market to fully capitalize these earnings without global oil demand data points on a universally firmer footing. Nonetheless, we raise our 2022 EBITDA forecasts by ~12%, with HFC, PBF, and VLO benefitting most. Our median PT is higher by 14%.

    WHAT'S CHANGED? From/To:
    HollyFrontier Corp Price Target $40.00 /$48.00
    Delek US Holdings Inc Price Target $20.00 / $23.00
    PBF Energy Inc Price Target $12.00 / $17.00
    Marathon Petroleum Corp Price Target $75.00 / $85.00
    Phillips 66 Price Target $80.00/$90.00
    Valero Energy Corporation Price Target $80.00 /$88.00
  • F
    $VLO conversation
    Oil Product Inventories in the U.S. looking lean.

    Last week- 23.1 days of supply
    Year ago week- 26.5 days of supply

    Delta- 3.4 days of supply less than last year

    Last week- 30.3 days of supply
    Year ago week- 42.1 days of supply

    Delta- 11.8 days of supply less than last year

    Good luck.

    #MPC, #HFC, #PSX
  • D
    $VLO conversation
    Never let it be said that I only post positive articles on refiners

    "Refiners Have Gotten a Boost from the Power Crunch. It Won’t Last."
    Barron’s Oct. 12, 2021 #MPC #PSX

    Oil refiners are heading into earnings season on a strong run. The pandemic is easing in much of the world, leading to higher demand for gasoline and aviation fuel. The natural gas shortage that’s causing gas prices to rise around the world is causing some gas-users to switch to oil products for generating electricity, further boosting demand. And those trends are boosting the bottom line: Refiners are likely to post their first quarter of solidly positive earnings since the pandemic started.

    The stocks of most U.S.-based refiners are up 10% to 20% in the past month. Phillips 66 (ticker: PSX) is leading the pack, up 23%. Valero Energy (VLO) has risen 19%, HollyFrontier (HFC) is up 13%, and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is up 11%.

    “It makes for a good short-term view,” said Citigroup analyst Prashant Rao in an interview.
    But the medium and longer term isn’t as rosy for refiners. There are at least three negative trends that could slow their rebound, and even send the stocks in reverse.

    The most immediate danger is that high prices for oil products will start to erode demand for those products. High oil prices could cause people to use less of it, or government policies meant to curb high costs could force changes in behavior.
    “Right now there’s a very, very positive environment,” Rao said. “But there’s some fears around what happens later in the winter.”

    Another problem is that a quirk in the market that has historically helped U.S. refiners isn’t helping them quite as much anymore. There has been a spread between the international price of crude oil and the U.S. price for several years. The international price, Brent, has traded at higher levels than the U.S. one, West Texas Intermediate, or WTI. That’s because there was an oversupply of U.S. oil. U.S. refiners were able to buy U.S. crude at low prices and process it into products that they sent overseas, making a wider margin than their international competitors.
    But U.S. producers have been pumping out less oil this year because they’re more focused on fixing their balance sheets than drilling new wells. The spread between Brent and WTI is now about $3, versus $6 two years ago.

    The third challenge is potentially an even more consequential and long-lasting one. More refineries are being built around the world, at a rate that is outpacing demand for oil products, Rao said. The pandemic may have slowed oil demand, but it didn’t slow refinery projects enough. So even as refiners work to get back to their prior operating levels, new competitors are getting close to opening.
    “Because you lost a year of oil demand, you had too many refiners in the world,” he said. “And now there’s new refineries in the Middle East and China coming on top of that. You’re going to have excess capacity for multiple years is what it looks like.”

    Refining capacity is likely to outpace demand by 1 million to 2 million barrels a day in the next two to three years, Rao said. As in any industry, too much capacity hurts prices, and the analyst expects refiner profitability to “take a step down from where it was before the pandemic.”

    Rao still likes some names. In particular, Valero still has particularly profitable operations, and is among the furthest along in transitioning to renewable fuels, including renewable diesel. In the next two to three years, about a quarter of its cash flows are likely to come from non-petroleum sources, he said.
  • D
    $VLO conversation
    OT -- Goldman Cools on Conoco But Likes 8 Other Oil Stocks -- Barron’s Oct 11, 2021 #MPC #PSX
    "The price of oil keeps rising, and the stocks of oil companies with it. Now, some analysts think the strategy of how to play the rebound is changing, too.

    For much of the past two years, investors and analysts have been focused on which oil companies can keep their costs down and send more of their profits back to investors as dividends and share buybacks. That’s led to more companies reducing their drilling budgets, paying off debts and slowing down plans to explore for new oil deposits.

    But there’s a counterargument to that strategy.

    There’s evidence now that demand for oil and gas isn’t going away in the near term, and the next few years will actually be characterized by high prices and underinvestment. That’s why Saudi Arabia is investing in expanding its production capacity to 13 million barrels a day from 12 million, even as U.S. and European oil firms slim down and reduce production.

    Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta thinks that investors ought to consider companies that have access to long-term sources of oil and gas. Mehta picked eight of those companies as potential investments that can pay off over time as oil prices stay high amid a supply shortage.
    Goldman forecasts that the world will use 106 million barrels of oil per day in 2030, versus assumptions from European oil companies that demand will be around 100 million barrels.

    The eight stocks should return 18% in the next year, on average, Mehta predicts.
    Hess (ticker: HES) owns a stake in a major oil project off the coast of Guyana in partnership with ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chinese company CNOOC (883Hong Kong) that is expected to produce considerable amounts of oil for the next decade. Mehta expects the company to increase its cash flow by 15% a year through 2030, from $10 per share this year to $30 in 2030. He sees shares rising to $106 from a recent $92.

    Exxon’s Guyana project, and its refining, chemicals and liquefied natural gas divisions give it one of the strongest asset bases in Big Oil, according to Mehta. He sees shares rising to $68 from a recent $62.50.

    Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) has one of the largest positions in the Permian Basin that Mehta expects to pay dividends for years — literally and figuratively. Pioneer has a variable dividend policy that could offer investors a dividend yield of 11% in 2022, Mehta estimates. He sees shares rising to $213 from a recent $196.

    Occidental Petroleum (OXY) has been held back for the past couple of years because it added substantial debt when it bought competitor Anadarko Petroleum. But investors may be overlooking the strength of its resource base in the U.S. and Middle East, as well as its chemicals division, Mehta asserts. He sees shares rising to $40 from a recent $34.

    Small-cap Kosmos Energy (KOS) has promise because of an offshore natural gas project in West Africa that it’s constructing with BP (BP), Mehta writes. It’s expected to start service in the second half of 2023. He sees shares rising to $4 from a recent $3.30.

    Mehta also likes three Canadian oil companies — Cenovus (CVE), Suncor (SU) and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ). He thinks they own resources that should pump out oil for years, and deserve more attention from American investors.

    Mehta has become less positive on ConocoPhillips (COP), though. He downgraded his rating to Neutral from Buy based on the company’s outperformance in recent months. It’s up 73% since his February upgrade, versus 15% for the S&P 500. He sees 4% total return for the stock in the next year, less than other oil stocks.
  • F
    $VLO conversation
    San Francisco gasoline price surges as storm disrupts area refineries
    Oct. 25, 2021 5:55 PM ET

    Spot gasoline prices in the San Francisco area are poised to hit record highs as record rainfall caused disruptions at two northern California refineries, Bloomberg reports.
    Physical gasoline prices surged $0.125 to the strongest premium over Nymex gasoline futures since mid-August, according to the report, as traders expect supplies will tighten in the days ahead.
    Chevron's (NYSE:CVX) Richmond refinery reportedly shut multiple units on Sunday with elevated flaring observed, and PBF Energy's (NYSE:PBF) Martinez refinery experienced an operational upset, according to a regulatory filing.
    Valero Energy's (NYSE:VLO) Benicia refinery already was down from the start of the month due to scheduled maintenance.
    Retail prices in the city were averaging $4.727/gal today, according to AAA, just a penny short of a record high set in 2012.
    The National Weather Service says the heavy rain and winds along the West Coast were caused by a "bomb cyclone" and an "atmospheric river."

    #MPC, #PSX, #HFC
  • k
    $RECAF conversation
    Can some of you oil guys go evaluate RECAF and tell me what you think of it in the low $4s?

    It hyped up huge on estimates of possible 32 to 130 Billion Barrels in Africa but then pulled back hard from $11 when the results of their first 2 wells merely showed oil shows and a "working petro system" but no Eureka oil find. Now they've just finished a Seismic survey to tie in with the 2 stratographic wells for choosing a better spot and drilling their 3rd well in January '22. What's the chances that oil is there and they simply need to better pinpoint the oil traps which should happen when they use the seismic data? They have funding and plans to do 4 more wells in '22 so they have 4 more shots before they would probably need to a funding round. If you have GEO experience analyzing well bore data then please go read their core analysis of their first well.

  • F
    $VLO conversation
    Hoping for a decent or large draw in gasoline and distillate inventories while a increase of crude inventories today at 11 AM for the weekly EIA Inventory Report!

    #mpc #psx #hfc
  • F
    $VLO conversation
    Thank goodness for pipelines!

    Canadian oil exports to the U.S. jump with new pipeline startup
    By Bloomberg  
    Thursday, October 7, 2021, 6:38 AM MDT

    Oil barrels Source: iStock/Guven Polat
    Canadian oil shipments to the U.S. jumped to the highest volume since the start of the year thanks in part to the startup of a long-delayed Canadian pipeline.

    Weekly oil deliveries from America’s northern neighbour reached 4.04 million barrels day, the most since January, according to the Energy Information Administration. It’s only the third time the U.S. has imported more than 4 million barrels a day of Canadian crude since the agency began compiling weekly data in 2010.

    It’s likely these increased flows will be the new norm mainly because of the expanded Line 3, said Elisabeth Murphy, ESAI Energy LLC upstream analyst for North America. In fact, weekly volumes should start to average closer to 3.7-3.8 million barrels a day from here, from current levels of around 3.5 million, she added.

    New course on scope 2 and scope 3 emissions that are generated due to the production of oil and gas products.

    Click here
    The additional barrels from Canada come as a relief to U.S. refiners struggling with less supply from OPEC+, shrinking imports from Latin America, and more recently, the loss of about 30 million barrels of Gulf of Mexico production after Hurricane Ida.

    Gulf Coast refineries have increasingly been pulling from Canada to offset the crude production in the Gulf of Mexico that remains shut since Hurricane Ida swept through over a month ago, said Shirin Lakhani, director of global oil service at Rapidan Energy Group.

    Last week, Enbridge Inc. started its new Line 3 crude pipeline after years of delays. It can transport 760,000 barrels a day of heavy and light oil, nearly double the size of the old line it replaced.

    #mpc, #psx, #hfc
  • F
    $VLO conversation
    Owning refiner shares is becoming fun again!

    #mpc #psx #hfc
  • F
    $VLO conversation
    Tighter supplies drive Asian gasoline margins higher
    Published date: 26 October 2021

    Firmer regional demand, refinery disruptions and reduced Chinese supplies have all combined to propel Asian gasoline margins to their highest level since December 2015.

    The Asian gasoline margin, or the Argus 92R Singapore gasoline price against Ice Brent crude, has increased to $16.91/bl, the highest level since 14 December 2015 when it was $17.42/bl.

    Margins had already been on the rise since the end of September with reduced shipments from key supplier China. But the supply tightness has been exacerbated by a sharp increase in spot buying from Indonesia and India.

    #MPC, #HFC, #PSX
  • D
    $VLO conversation
    MS 9/29 paper - Feedback on Our Launch & What's Changed (Highlights only)
    Following our initiation, our investor conversations suggest a marked preference for producers vs. refiners, though MPC is a popular holding. The largest development since our launch has been increasing clarity on biofuels policy, which alleviates near-term RINs pressure, but will drive LT uptake.

    Reminder of our thesis — bullish sector outlook on oil demand recovery, low valuations.

    What's happened since our launch? The market has moved into a relatively "riskon" mindset over the past few days in light of major supply constraints across key commodities, driving the R&M group higher in sympathy with the broader Energy sector. Valuation remains compelling, in our view. Market-wide fundamentals have been mixed. Crack spreads have softened somewhat as most refineries restarted shortly following Hurricane Ida, while crude oil production was more meaningfully impacted. Importantly, though, product-specific dynamics have been moving in line with our thesis (strengthening jet/diesel pricing, gasoline more stagnant). Demand data points from weekly DOE figures have been solid, largely on robust diesel demand. Our focus remains on data points that point to the path forward in 2022, and here, we continue to watch COVID case trends, which have shown signs of the Delta wave plateauing abroad and declining in the S , and broader mobility measures, which generally point to continued recovery in transportation activity.

    The two largest changes since our launch were on the biofuels front. First, the draft budget reconciliation language released by the House Ways & Means Committee would provide a meaningful tailwind for biofuels producers through the end of the decade. We detailed the impact on sustainable aviation fuel in particular here, but also note that the potential extension of the $1.00/gal renewable diesel blender's tax credit is a major tailwind for producers (most exposed right now: VLO, with HFC and MPC next). Second, Reuters reported that the EPA has recommended meaningfully reduced blending requirements for the 2020 and 2021 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO). This has caused Renewable Identification Number (RIN) pricing to fall materially, effectively lowering the cost refiners face to offset their petroleum-based fuels production. The market has traded this relatively fairly, in our view, with refiners outperforming biofuels producers, and
    especially those like PBF who have explicitly stated that they have not been purchasing RINs at elevated prices. Long term, the direction of travel is clear, though US biofuels policies and Low Carbon Fuel Standards are likely to increasingly favor biofuels production. Refiners without a meaningful biofuels strategy will likely face lower multiples and, potentially, more pressure on cash flows. #MPC #PSX
  • D
    $VLO conversation
    Nice open. Oil markets exploding this morning for reasons outlined in the Reuters article . According to CNBC, energy funds now dominate trading, so I'm guessing that refiners are along for the ride. I haven't seen any other news. #MPC #PSX
  • F
    $VLO conversation
    Looks like the house will vote today for the $1 Trillion Infrastructure bill and I believe it will pass. This will be good for refiners. Too bad only 11 percent is actually for roads and bridges.

    #MPC, #PSX, #HFC
  • D
    $VLO conversation
    Off topic -- There are many in the US and Europe who want their citizens to sacrifice something in order to reduce emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.
    While we fret about burning oil and gas, coal futures have surged to a record high of $210 per metric ton, coming from $83 at the end of April. While dealing with electricity shortages, China has returned to burning coal... but is now vowing to achieve emissions standards and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. That's a good target date because everyone involved will be dead.
    This obviously raises some questions about the value of US efforts to promote "clean" energy. #MPC #PSX
  • s
    $PSX conversation
    Target Raised by Citigroup Neutral USD 75 » USD 80
    Upgrades Piper Sandler Overweight USD 85 » USD 87
  • D
    $VLO conversation
    Crude oil prices went up today as the EIA reported 6.4-million-barrel draw in US crude oil inventories and another draw in fuel inventories. Draw was greater than expected.

    For the week to September 10, the EIA reported a second weekly draw in gasoline inventories, at 1.9 million. Gasoline demand was lower than last week. Distillate inventories dropped 1.7 million barrels in the week. Distillate demand was stronger than last week

    Production of gasoline last week averaged 9.3 million bpd, which compared with 10.1 million bpd a week earlier. There appears to have been some lag in noting the impact of hurricane-related refinery closures. I don’t know why. Production of middle distillates averaged 4.2 million bpd last week, about the same as during the previous week.
    #mpc #psx
  • D
    $VLO conversation
    Gas Prices May Keep Rising After Labor Day. Blame Hurricane Ida -- Barron’s 9/2/21 #MPC #PSX

    Labor Day weekend traditionally signals the conclusion of the U.S. summer driving season, but it may not mark the end of the peak period for gasoline prices, which stand near their highest since 2014.
    Atlantic storm Ida, which hit the U.S. Gulf Coast as a Category 4 hurricane on Aug. 29, led to the shutdown of some key Gulf Coast refinery operations, and it’s still not clear when those may fully resume.
    On Wednesday, Entergy (ticker: ETR), which provides power for states including Louisiana and Mississippi, said it would take time to fully restore power given significant damage across the region. The Wall Street Journal reported it could take weeks to resume refinery operations due to widespread power outages.
    The disruption comes at a time of increased travel, and as gasoline consumption continues to recover from the effects of Covid restrictions on the economy.
    Gasoline demand has been strong over this summer, at around 3.5% below 2019 levels, says Ken Robinson, market research manager at workforce management and reimbursement platform Motus. Travel volume data suggest that people “remain more comfortable driving than flying.”
    U.S. motor gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, was at 9.5 million barrels per day on average over the four weeks ended Aug. 27, up from 8.9 million barrels per day the same period a year earlier, according to the Energy Information Administration. For roughly the same period in 2019, implied demand was at 9.7 million barrels per day.

    Gasoline may still have room to rise as Robinson expects Ida, which affected offshore wells, ports, refineries and pipelines, to “drive gas prices to their 2021 peak.” He estimates a potential, but temporary, five- to nine-cent increase in prices due to the storm that would likely ease off by early October “at the latest.”
    Retail gasoline prices have already inched higher following the storm, with the average national price at $3.174 a gallon on Sept. 1, up from the week-earlier average of $3.147, according to AAA. Reformulated gasoline futures haven’t climbed over the past seven days but at $2.11, gained nearly 76% from 52 weeks ago.

    Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at travel and navigation app GasBuddy, predicts an even larger price impact from the storm. Ida may lead to a five- to 15-cent per gallon rise in retail gasoline prices, he says, and a rise at the top end of that range would mark a new peak for prices this year. The worst-case scenario would be several weeks of power outages at refineries that lead to a retail gasoline price spike of more than 15 cents, he says.
    Either way, the potential for more disruptions remains since Atlantic hurricane season remains far from over. The season officially ends on Nov. 30 and the National Hurricane Center shows three more weather systems brewing in the Atlantic basin.
    Gasoline demand traditionally slows down after Labor Day, and prices for the fuel typically start to decline, says Andrew Gross, a spokesman for AAA. With the increasing Covid case numbers, he said AAA would expect prices to decrease.
    However, the hurricane season stands as an important “caveat that could spike gas prices,” he says. The impact of a significant storm like Ida could be “felt for weeks in terms of regional spikes in gas prices due to demand, infrastructure damage, and transportation issues,” says Gross.
    With prices so close to the year’s high, it wouldn’t take much to reach a new peak. In early August, gasoline prices reached $3.19 a gallon, the highest in seven years, according to Gross.
    It’s likely that while gasoline prices may ease in the post-Ida period, they will probably remain above $3 a gallon through early fall, he says.
  • D
    $VLO conversation
    Aug 30 – Oil and Gas Journal – selected paragraphs only. #MPC #PSX
    While several operators confirmed undertaking precautionary shutdowns of many refineries and petrochemical plants ahead of the hurricane’s arrival, updates regarding current operations at the sites were slow coming on Monday, presumably amid widespread electrical outages in the region

    As of 9:00 p.m. CST on Aug. 28, Phillips 66 confirmed via a statement to the company’s website that it had completed a safe and orderly shutdown of operations and released all personnel from work at its 255,600-b/d Alliance refinery in Belle Chasse, La. Further updates regarding the status of the refinery, however, have yet to be released.

    Other major operators in the region remained silent regarding the operational status of or precautionary measures taken at their Louisiana manufacturing sites. While local New Orleans news broadcasts said Valero Energy Corp. had confirmed precautionary shutdowns of subsidiaries Valero Refining Meraux LLC’s 125,000-b/d refinery in Meraux, La., and Valero Refining New Orleans LLC’s 215,000-b/d refinery in Norco, the company did not respond to OGJ’s request for confirmation of the shutdowns.

    Corporate policies that restrict disclosure of information regarding daily operations at manufacturing sites also has left the situational status unclear for Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s 578,000-b/d refinery in Garyville, La., and PBF Energy Inc. subsidiary Chalmette Refining LLC’s 185,000-b/d dual-train coking refinery in Chalmette, St. Bernard Parish, La., outside of New Orleans.

    I don’t understand why all refiners are down, including those with no exposure to the storm like HFC” I guess we’ll see how this plays out tomorrow