iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

"This is the simple reason you can't believe the P/E ratio for the Russell 2000 right now. If you want the real P/E for an index, you NEED TO INCLUDE THOSE COMPANIES THAT ARE LOSING MONEY. (doh!)

If you answered wrong you're in good company. The two incorrect P/E ratios in my quiz come from very reputable sources: The 17.5 ratio comes from Morningstar's reporting for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM. The 14.1 is what iShares reports for that same ETF.

Both numbers are significantly below the index's long-term average for the P/E ratio.
The reason these two firms report such low P/E ratios is that THEIR CALCULATIONS EXCLUDE FIRMS THAT ARE LOSING MONEY. In many years, this exclusion has little impact. But not now, since a significant percentage of the small- and mid-cap firms that are in the Russell 2000 index are losing money. By excluding those firms, the calculations ARTIFICIALLY make the small- and mid-cap sectors APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED.

In the large-cap sector, in contrast, the prevalence of unprofitable companies is lower, but still not insignificant. Notice from the chart from 10% of the companies in the S&P 500 SPX have lost money over the last 12 months.

The reason that the Russell 2000's trailing P/E is meaningless is that companies in the benchmark collectively lost money over the last 12 months. As Deluard put it, "the 'real' P/E is meaningless with a negative denominator." Don't try to wriggle out from underneath this conclusion by shifting your focus to ESTIMATED EARNINGS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. DELUARD SAYS THE RUSSELL 2000'S FORWARD P/E CURRENTLY STANDS AT 132."

$IWM $SPY $DJI

The bond vigilantes were out in full force yesterday, selling off anything and everything that had an unreasonably high amount of debt.... probably in response to the ignoramuses touting the Modern monetary theory as a rational for more government spending and larger deficits. I'm sure MMT was invented by some shill in an attempt to shift sentiment on WS and instigate the fiscal hawks. I know plenty of lugubrious fund managers and traders dissatisfied with 2019 rally, and are way behind on their short positions in $IWM. I'm not sure I follow their lead. Their theory rely's on this "flight to quality" phenomenon in part caused by Fed rate hikes. And, as the economy grows, the Fed should resume a series of potentially damaging rate hikes, which, ultimately serves as a headwind to many higher debt-holding small cap companies. Only problem is.. that Powell just signaled a more dovish stance moving forward. WS remains hard at work manufacturing the next reason to sell.

$QQQ $SPY @DIA $IWM As I mentioned in an earlier post, there is an obvious lag to the covid 19 case data. After having been tested last week, I still have yet to receive my results (7+ days and counting). And I see this market reacting to, daily case data with little to no regard for the obvious lags. In effect, yesterday's reality is todays trading news. President Trump via WH press briefing, predicts a "tough couple of weeks". While I realize they have "experts" modeling the course of this disease, I also believe there is a level front-running going on-- an information arbitrage if you will.... All in an effort to manage expectations and influence the demand/supply dynamic for respirators and hospital beds. I've started to notice that the media, particularly on you CNBC's and Bloomberg's, have opportunistically capitalized on this informational arbitrage. They strike a daily temper to match the underlying technical complexion of the market. ie. In oversold conditions, the pundits/ mediators take on a more hopeful constuctive view point; After touching the 20DMA, suddenly they strike a more negative tone-- calls for retest of lows--all just seems too tidy, walking the milk bone around the room while the starving dog (informationally starved) reacts. Remember, the exchanges are empty, running on algo-autopilot. While the traders are away, the machines will play, eh? And, those machines trade on "headlines". My point is that this quasi controlled "delay" in the data, leads to a front-running/ arbitraging effect that the media/pundits exploit to influence a suggested action.

June payrolls with solid numbers + May numbers revised upwards
this account has been bullish since March - rode with picks and returned 20%, worth a follow for more winners
$SPY $DJI $NASDAQ $QQQ $IWM
https://twitter.com/Clifton_Capital/status/1278302265032314880

Market topping? That’s NOT what Internals show mathematically which CAN change. Mostly pundits who just seem to grasp that new Alltime highs occur repeatedly in many Bull Uptrends!


Small Caps - For the most part, we could have said this in 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999: "Small caps are underperforming" Over that period, the S&P 500 gained 215%; the NASDAQ gained 424%. Click image to enlarge $SPX $SPY $IWM #SmallCaps”

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