Marchés français ouverture 7 h 31 min

Phillips 66 (PSX)

NYSE - NYSE Prix différé. Devise en USD
Ajouter à la liste dynamique
71,85-0,63 (-0,87 %)
À la clôture : 04:00PM EST
72,41 +0,56 (+0,78 %)
Échanges après Bourse : 06:59PM EST
Connectez-vous pour publier un message.

Tout commentaire contraire à la réglementation en vigueur (et notamment tout commentaire à caractère raciste, antisémite ou diffamatoire) pourra donner lieu à la suppression de votre compte Yahoo.

Le cas échéant, certains commentaires que vous postez pourront également donner lieu à des poursuites judiciaires à votre encontre.

  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    There are several articles to "google" on EPA proposals to reduce biofuel blending requirements for 2020 and 2021, but to increase them for 2022. I imagine that, depending on how "covered" refiners were in the past, the short term relief for individual refiners will vary. This is a mixed bag for the industry at best.

    Refiners have been forced to buy RIN credits on the open market not knowing what their actual RFS requirement will be. As a result of this announcement, the cost of RINs went up and down depending on applicable years. Since refiners keep their RIN status confidential, we can't identify who benefits.

    Small refinery exemptions from RFS will be reduced or eliminated.

    Despite some short term concerns about voters blaming the administration for high gasoline prices, the main long-term goal for President B is to reduce emissions. Fuel blending requirements have been an ongoing political battle between Big Farm and Big Oil. I think the farmers have the deck stacked.

    The EPA approval process includes public feedback and a decision is not likely before March. I don't expect much good to happen for my refiner investments, but one never knows.
    #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    These are the details of the announced SPR oil release. Unknown are how other oil importing nations will respond, how OPEC will respond, and whether this will help US refiners. #MPC #PSX

    https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-make-available-release-50-million-barrels-crude-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve

    FYI -- An exchange agreement involves return of the principal amount of similar quality crude oil to the SPR, plus payment of an in-kind premium determined according to the period negotiated for return. A letter of credit will be required for the exchange of crude oil.
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    It was a demoralizing day and week for shareholders of refining stocks. The president's announced plan to release strategic oil reserves, possibly in unison with China, drove down the price of oil and gasoline, as was intended. US refiner profits should not be significantly affected by this action, but that did not seem to matter.

    Renewed Covid concerns, highlighted by increasing global infections and the shutdown of Austria, will affect US refiner profits if the trend continues.
    Passage by the House of the BBB bill, although unlikely to advance in its’ current form, adds more uncertainty as to the government's efforts to limit the use of fossil fuels. Together with the first bill, significant monies will be spent on charging stations and EV subsidies or tax incentives.

    So, ignoring the dividends paid this week, VLO, MPC, and PSX lost 8.7%, 7.6%, and 9.1%, respectively for the week. (MPC’s large stock buyback program usually provides something of a floor on “down" days but not much support on “up” days.)
    I don’t see selling the refiners at these levels. I plan on holding and hope for a reversal starting next week. Nevertheless, we should all be aware of the substantial headwinds. I wish the best of luck to all.
    #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    Excerpt from 11/9 Barron's article on high energy costs #MPC #PSX
    "Companies that make or process fuels and chemicals often run on natural gas. Refinery operator Valero Energy (VLO) said that its refinery operating expenses rose 6% in the third quarter largely because of higher natural gas prices. And any other business—including office work—that uses substantial amounts of electricity can be hurt when energy prices rise. Natural gas now accounts for the largest share of U.S. electricity generation."
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    For anyone not aware, both MPC (58 cents) and PSX (92 cents) are trading x-dividend today. VLO (98 cents) trades x-dividend tomorrow, Nov 17. #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    This is a reprint of a post entered by Highlowsell on the FCX page
    "Somewhat OT, but since we talk about the EV "revolution" this NYTimes guest essay is worth a read (if you can get to it behind their paywall, and Yahoo allows the link). Excerpt:

    "China’s decision a decade ago to knit all the pieces of its battery supply chain together into a comprehensively controlled, globe-spanning industry has yielded it genuine strategic power. Turning ore into electrodes is far trickier than extracting minerals. It has taken China much of the decade to stand up an industry that, according to Wood Mackenzie, an energy research and consulting firm, now possesses about 90 percent of global capacity to process raw lithium, about 70 percent of cobalt and 40 percent of nickel. China also has almost all the manganese- and graphite-refining capacity."

    So, building a EV plant, batteries and such, is one thing ain't it? Turning the raw ore into a properly refined product for the batteries, that's quite another thing, eh?"

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/opinion/electric-vehicle-climate-battery.html
    #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    There is a lot of volatility in energy markets, affecting refiners, drillers, and alternative energy stocks. The climate change conference in Glasgow provides a constant flow of news. Our own president leads the charge against fossil fuels while begging OPEC+ to increase oil production. The US initiative on methane seems innocuous enough but the devil will be in the EPA details.

    Refiner sales and crack spreads appear to be growing but the latter can reverse trends at any time. Increases in the price of oil have driven all US drillers and refiners higher, but if gasoline gets too expensive, demand destruction will likely occur… mostly in the form of earlier adoption of electric vehicles. I’m not smart enough to estimate how higher electricity costs, chip shortages, and shipping issues will affect the rate of adoptions for electric cars.
    Meanwhile, about 5 million cars are sold in the US each year with only 2-3% electric. More people are working at home but, with US economy improving and with declining attractiveness of public transportation, I don’t expect “miles driven” to decline.
    I am holding my refiner stocks through what I expect to be more volatility – including the possibility of an overall market correction. As always, I may be wrong. Good luck.
    #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    MS --3Q EPS Preview: Rising Tide -- Oct 18, 2021 #MPC #PSX
    Industry indicators strengthening as gasoline and diesel demand remain robust; jet is starting to look healthier.

    Demand data points since our launch have been strong. Jet fuel, the laggard to this point, has seen demand trend closer to the 5Y average, while diesel demand has been exceptionally strong. Product cracks are reflecting these improvements, with both diesel and jet cracks moving back towards their pre-COVID levels. Meanwhile, gasoline cracks have come down somewhat vs. our prior deck, but net-net, our price deck for 2022 has moved materially higher (~$2-3/bbl). Regionally, Midwest and Midcon cracks have strengthened the most vs. our prior update, generally resulting in more significant revisions for inland-oriented refiners like MPC and HFC. We do not expect the market will fully pay for these high prices on the curve right now, but we do think it will nonetheless reward beats-and-raises across the group this quarter.

    Picks into earnings and what we are watching: We are generally in line with consensus in 3Q, so our tactical picks are focused on revisions to 4Q21 and 2022 — we expect the largest positive near-term revisions out of MPC and VLO on the large cap side, and DK and PBF among the small/mid caps. Meanwhile, we see more limited near-term revisions to PSX and HFC. We expect the overall demand recovery will be front and center, but beyond this, biofuels have been the most topical point in our investor conversations. Based on the current project pipeline, there is growing concern that the industry is already set to overbuild biofuels capacity, but there are potential mitigating factors on both the demand (more states adopting Low Carbon Fuel Standards) and supply side (project slippage/cancellation). MPC and HFC will likely have the most attention on their projects, as MPC has yet to share a fully-loaded budget and HFC is currently running a bit over budget vs. initial guidance. We expect updates on Hurricane Ida's impact will be given, but only see PSX's Alliance facility as at risk of serious investment need, or potential sale/shutdown.

    Raising estimates and price targets on higher price deck. As discussed above, our average cracks are ~$2-3/bbl higher in 2022. We are risking our capture assumptions somewhat, and assume a certain degree of multiple compression on these high values, as we do not expect the market to fully capitalize these earnings without global oil demand data points on a universally firmer footing. Nonetheless, we raise our 2022 EBITDA forecasts by ~12%, with HFC, PBF, and VLO benefitting most. Our median PT is higher by 14%.

    WHAT'S CHANGED? From/To:
    HollyFrontier Corp Price Target $40.00 /$48.00
    Delek US Holdings Inc Price Target $20.00 / $23.00
    PBF Energy Inc Price Target $12.00 / $17.00
    Marathon Petroleum Corp Price Target $75.00 / $85.00
    Phillips 66 Price Target $80.00/$90.00
    Valero Energy Corporation Price Target $80.00 /$88.00
  • ẞeyhmus
    $XOM conversation
    Interesting fact: $30.38 in 2000 (Average Closing Price for Brent) is equivalent in purchasing power to about $48.39 today.

    I wonder if the cost of production has increased or decreased since 2000.

    $XOM $CVX $PXD $SLB $COP $MPC $EOG $KMI $WMB $PSX $VLO $OXY $OKE $DVN $HES $BKR $HAL $FANG $MRO $CTRA $APA
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Oil Product Inventories in the U.S. looking lean.

    Gasoline-
    Last week- 23.1 days of supply
    Year ago week- 26.5 days of supply

    Delta- 3.4 days of supply less than last year

    Distillates-
    Last week- 30.3 days of supply
    Year ago week- 42.1 days of supply

    Delta- 11.8 days of supply less than last year

    Good luck.

    #MPC, #HFC, #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    Never let it be said that I only post positive articles on refiners

    "Refiners Have Gotten a Boost from the Power Crunch. It Won’t Last."
    Barron’s Oct. 12, 2021 #MPC #PSX

    Oil refiners are heading into earnings season on a strong run. The pandemic is easing in much of the world, leading to higher demand for gasoline and aviation fuel. The natural gas shortage that’s causing gas prices to rise around the world is causing some gas-users to switch to oil products for generating electricity, further boosting demand. And those trends are boosting the bottom line: Refiners are likely to post their first quarter of solidly positive earnings since the pandemic started.

    The stocks of most U.S.-based refiners are up 10% to 20% in the past month. Phillips 66 (ticker: PSX) is leading the pack, up 23%. Valero Energy (VLO) has risen 19%, HollyFrontier (HFC) is up 13%, and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is up 11%.

    “It makes for a good short-term view,” said Citigroup analyst Prashant Rao in an interview.
    But the medium and longer term isn’t as rosy for refiners. There are at least three negative trends that could slow their rebound, and even send the stocks in reverse.

    The most immediate danger is that high prices for oil products will start to erode demand for those products. High oil prices could cause people to use less of it, or government policies meant to curb high costs could force changes in behavior.
    “Right now there’s a very, very positive environment,” Rao said. “But there’s some fears around what happens later in the winter.”

    Another problem is that a quirk in the market that has historically helped U.S. refiners isn’t helping them quite as much anymore. There has been a spread between the international price of crude oil and the U.S. price for several years. The international price, Brent, has traded at higher levels than the U.S. one, West Texas Intermediate, or WTI. That’s because there was an oversupply of U.S. oil. U.S. refiners were able to buy U.S. crude at low prices and process it into products that they sent overseas, making a wider margin than their international competitors.
    But U.S. producers have been pumping out less oil this year because they’re more focused on fixing their balance sheets than drilling new wells. The spread between Brent and WTI is now about $3, versus $6 two years ago.

    The third challenge is potentially an even more consequential and long-lasting one. More refineries are being built around the world, at a rate that is outpacing demand for oil products, Rao said. The pandemic may have slowed oil demand, but it didn’t slow refinery projects enough. So even as refiners work to get back to their prior operating levels, new competitors are getting close to opening.
    “Because you lost a year of oil demand, you had too many refiners in the world,” he said. “And now there’s new refineries in the Middle East and China coming on top of that. You’re going to have excess capacity for multiple years is what it looks like.”

    Refining capacity is likely to outpace demand by 1 million to 2 million barrels a day in the next two to three years, Rao said. As in any industry, too much capacity hurts prices, and the analyst expects refiner profitability to “take a step down from where it was before the pandemic.”

    Rao still likes some names. In particular, Valero still has particularly profitable operations, and is among the furthest along in transitioning to renewable fuels, including renewable diesel. In the next two to three years, about a quarter of its cash flows are likely to come from non-petroleum sources, he said.
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    OT -- Goldman Cools on Conoco But Likes 8 Other Oil Stocks -- Barron’s Oct 11, 2021 #MPC #PSX
    "The price of oil keeps rising, and the stocks of oil companies with it. Now, some analysts think the strategy of how to play the rebound is changing, too.

    For much of the past two years, investors and analysts have been focused on which oil companies can keep their costs down and send more of their profits back to investors as dividends and share buybacks. That’s led to more companies reducing their drilling budgets, paying off debts and slowing down plans to explore for new oil deposits.

    But there’s a counterargument to that strategy.

    There’s evidence now that demand for oil and gas isn’t going away in the near term, and the next few years will actually be characterized by high prices and underinvestment. That’s why Saudi Arabia is investing in expanding its production capacity to 13 million barrels a day from 12 million, even as U.S. and European oil firms slim down and reduce production.

    Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta thinks that investors ought to consider companies that have access to long-term sources of oil and gas. Mehta picked eight of those companies as potential investments that can pay off over time as oil prices stay high amid a supply shortage.
    Goldman forecasts that the world will use 106 million barrels of oil per day in 2030, versus assumptions from European oil companies that demand will be around 100 million barrels.

    The eight stocks should return 18% in the next year, on average, Mehta predicts.
    Hess (ticker: HES) owns a stake in a major oil project off the coast of Guyana in partnership with ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chinese company CNOOC (883Hong Kong) that is expected to produce considerable amounts of oil for the next decade. Mehta expects the company to increase its cash flow by 15% a year through 2030, from $10 per share this year to $30 in 2030. He sees shares rising to $106 from a recent $92.

    Exxon’s Guyana project, and its refining, chemicals and liquefied natural gas divisions give it one of the strongest asset bases in Big Oil, according to Mehta. He sees shares rising to $68 from a recent $62.50.

    Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) has one of the largest positions in the Permian Basin that Mehta expects to pay dividends for years — literally and figuratively. Pioneer has a variable dividend policy that could offer investors a dividend yield of 11% in 2022, Mehta estimates. He sees shares rising to $213 from a recent $196.

    Occidental Petroleum (OXY) has been held back for the past couple of years because it added substantial debt when it bought competitor Anadarko Petroleum. But investors may be overlooking the strength of its resource base in the U.S. and Middle East, as well as its chemicals division, Mehta asserts. He sees shares rising to $40 from a recent $34.

    Small-cap Kosmos Energy (KOS) has promise because of an offshore natural gas project in West Africa that it’s constructing with BP (BP), Mehta writes. It’s expected to start service in the second half of 2023. He sees shares rising to $4 from a recent $3.30.

    Mehta also likes three Canadian oil companies — Cenovus (CVE), Suncor (SU) and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ). He thinks they own resources that should pump out oil for years, and deserve more attention from American investors.

    Mehta has become less positive on ConocoPhillips (COP), though. He downgraded his rating to Neutral from Buy based on the company’s outperformance in recent months. It’s up 73% since his February upgrade, versus 15% for the S&P 500. He sees 4% total return for the stock in the next year, less than other oil stocks.
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    San Francisco gasoline price surges as storm disrupts area refineries
    Oct. 25, 2021 5:55 PM ET

    Spot gasoline prices in the San Francisco area are poised to hit record highs as record rainfall caused disruptions at two northern California refineries, Bloomberg reports.
    Physical gasoline prices surged $0.125 to the strongest premium over Nymex gasoline futures since mid-August, according to the report, as traders expect supplies will tighten in the days ahead.
    Chevron's (NYSE:CVX) Richmond refinery reportedly shut multiple units on Sunday with elevated flaring observed, and PBF Energy's (NYSE:PBF) Martinez refinery experienced an operational upset, according to a regulatory filing.
    Valero Energy's (NYSE:VLO) Benicia refinery already was down from the start of the month due to scheduled maintenance.
    Retail prices in the city were averaging $4.727/gal today, according to AAA, just a penny short of a record high set in 2012.
    The National Weather Service says the heavy rain and winds along the West Coast were caused by a "bomb cyclone" and an "atmospheric river."

    #MPC, #PSX, #HFC
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Hoping for a decent or large draw in gasoline and distillate inventories while a increase of crude inventories today at 11 AM for the weekly EIA Inventory Report!

    #mpc #psx #hfc
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Owning refiner shares is becoming fun again!

    #mpc #psx #hfc
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Thank goodness for pipelines!

    Canadian oil exports to the U.S. jump with new pipeline startup
    By Bloomberg  
    Thursday, October 7, 2021, 6:38 AM MDT

    Oil barrels Source: iStock/Guven Polat
    Canadian oil shipments to the U.S. jumped to the highest volume since the start of the year thanks in part to the startup of a long-delayed Canadian pipeline.

    Weekly oil deliveries from America’s northern neighbour reached 4.04 million barrels day, the most since January, according to the Energy Information Administration. It’s only the third time the U.S. has imported more than 4 million barrels a day of Canadian crude since the agency began compiling weekly data in 2010.

    It’s likely these increased flows will be the new norm mainly because of the expanded Line 3, said Elisabeth Murphy, ESAI Energy LLC upstream analyst for North America. In fact, weekly volumes should start to average closer to 3.7-3.8 million barrels a day from here, from current levels of around 3.5 million, she added.

    New course on scope 2 and scope 3 emissions that are generated due to the production of oil and gas products.

    Click here
    The additional barrels from Canada come as a relief to U.S. refiners struggling with less supply from OPEC+, shrinking imports from Latin America, and more recently, the loss of about 30 million barrels of Gulf of Mexico production after Hurricane Ida.

    Gulf Coast refineries have increasingly been pulling from Canada to offset the crude production in the Gulf of Mexico that remains shut since Hurricane Ida swept through over a month ago, said Shirin Lakhani, director of global oil service at Rapidan Energy Group.

    Last week, Enbridge Inc. started its new Line 3 crude pipeline after years of delays. It can transport 760,000 barrels a day of heavy and light oil, nearly double the size of the old line it replaced.

    #mpc, #psx, #hfc
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Tighter supplies drive Asian gasoline margins higher
    Published date: 26 October 2021

    Firmer regional demand, refinery disruptions and reduced Chinese supplies have all combined to propel Asian gasoline margins to their highest level since December 2015.

    The Asian gasoline margin, or the Argus 92R Singapore gasoline price against Ice Brent crude, has increased to $16.91/bl, the highest level since 14 December 2015 when it was $17.42/bl.

    Margins had already been on the rise since the end of September with reduced shipments from key supplier China. But the supply tightness has been exacerbated by a sharp increase in spot buying from Indonesia and India.

    #MPC, #HFC, #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    MS 9/29 paper - Feedback on Our Launch & What's Changed (Highlights only)
    Following our initiation, our investor conversations suggest a marked preference for producers vs. refiners, though MPC is a popular holding. The largest development since our launch has been increasing clarity on biofuels policy, which alleviates near-term RINs pressure, but will drive LT uptake.

    Reminder of our thesis — bullish sector outlook on oil demand recovery, low valuations.

    What's happened since our launch? The market has moved into a relatively "riskon" mindset over the past few days in light of major supply constraints across key commodities, driving the R&M group higher in sympathy with the broader Energy sector. Valuation remains compelling, in our view. Market-wide fundamentals have been mixed. Crack spreads have softened somewhat as most refineries restarted shortly following Hurricane Ida, while crude oil production was more meaningfully impacted. Importantly, though, product-specific dynamics have been moving in line with our thesis (strengthening jet/diesel pricing, gasoline more stagnant). Demand data points from weekly DOE figures have been solid, largely on robust diesel demand. Our focus remains on data points that point to the path forward in 2022, and here, we continue to watch COVID case trends, which have shown signs of the Delta wave plateauing abroad and declining in the S , and broader mobility measures, which generally point to continued recovery in transportation activity.

    The two largest changes since our launch were on the biofuels front. First, the draft budget reconciliation language released by the House Ways & Means Committee would provide a meaningful tailwind for biofuels producers through the end of the decade. We detailed the impact on sustainable aviation fuel in particular here, but also note that the potential extension of the $1.00/gal renewable diesel blender's tax credit is a major tailwind for producers (most exposed right now: VLO, with HFC and MPC next). Second, Reuters reported that the EPA has recommended meaningfully reduced blending requirements for the 2020 and 2021 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO). This has caused Renewable Identification Number (RIN) pricing to fall materially, effectively lowering the cost refiners face to offset their petroleum-based fuels production. The market has traded this relatively fairly, in our view, with refiners outperforming biofuels producers, and
    especially those like PBF who have explicitly stated that they have not been purchasing RINs at elevated prices. Long term, the direction of travel is clear, though US biofuels policies and Low Carbon Fuel Standards are likely to increasingly favor biofuels production. Refiners without a meaningful biofuels strategy will likely face lower multiples and, potentially, more pressure on cash flows. #MPC #PSX
  • M
    Matt
    $XOM conversation
    For anyone that has been sitting on some cash, today is a great day to buy $XOM, $COP, $PSX, $VLO, $SLB, $HAL, $BKR, $MPLX, $SHLX, $PSXP. Look at microsoft. Algos are haywire. Reset before tomorrow open. Always great to get in at bargain basement prices!!!