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Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Cours en temps réel. Devise en USD
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394,83-31,32 (-7,35 %)
À la clôture : 04:00PM EDT
395,00 +0,17 (+0,04 %)
Échanges après Bourse : 07:59PM EDT
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  • n
    nycapitalist
    $AMAT conversation
    Well, I thought today (Friday) would be deep red day. Happy to be very wrong. Nice recovery for $amat and $lrcx . Have a great weekend! A long weekend for those of us in the U.S.. Enjoy.
  • n
    nycapitalist
    $AMAT conversation
    Interesting. $amat and $lrcx up nicely with the only news being bad news ( $nvda ) and that was up as well. To use recent history as a guide, Friday will be a major selloff day because... well, just because. Maybe the trend is reversing? We'll see. Stay tuned. BTW, Applied's CC after earnings was actually quite positive as orders remain massive and backlog grows. China is supposed to start re-opening Shanghai so we will see how that goes.
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    from the CEO on the $LRCX conference call:

    "I think the true shortages in ICs; its a multi-multi-quarter situation before we really feel anything we order has normal lead times as we're used to in the past."

    Yes, he actually said "multi-multi-quarter"

    Lam is the sort of company chipmakers want at (or near) the head of the line when it comes to chip deliveries. Chipmakers are dependent on Lam and Lam is dependent on them. True of all the top semi capex sorts ($KLAC, $ASML, etc).

    So, for a company at the head of the line to still have a multi-multi-quarter issue until a return to normal suggests other customers are looking at multi-multi-multi quarters before this resolves.

    Demand is/will remain enormous, despite the broader demand destruction under way from the Fed. Chip demand may take a hit in some areas, but more broadly, there are so many places where demand overwhelms supply it'll be hard to notice. With new demand drivers coming. We're looking at years of goodness
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    "Currently we see no signs of any weakening in our customer base. Zero,. And even if demand weakens, there is a big gap between the demand and our capacity."

    Peter Winnik, ASML CEO in their conference call

    I keep saying it. At a fundamental level, demand for digital systems is increasing every year and there is no obvious end in sight. Not this year, next year and unlikely the year after. The more likely scenario is a bunch of major demand drivers will come into play (example: someone described cars becoming data centers on wheels, and that cycle hasn't even begun) and chip supply will remain tight for 5-10 years. Maybe not as tight as its been recently, but any oversupply is likely to be infrequent and short-lived for the next decade or so.

    The underlying demand is just so incredibly large.

    Which is good for $AMAT, $ASML, $KLAC, $LRCX among others. All extremely undervalued.
  • n
    nycapitalist
    $AMAT conversation
    Should there be a move on Taiwan from China (let's hope not), the reality is that semiconductor equipment companies like Applied would see an enormous ramp in business going forward. New sources of chip production would have to be built out and an urgency by nations to have domestic chip production would be a top priority. The main problem for $amat $lrcx etc. would be expanding capacity to meet the demand. This would be for many years. The U.S. right now is making a half-hearted attempt to ramp production, but that would ramp exponentially given a Taiwan crisis. JMHO
  • n
    nycapitalist
    $AMAT conversation
    TSMC earnings at 2 AM ET. Could be a big move either way tomorrow. Cautiously optimistic. $tsm $lrcx $asml
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    great company, great biz, great earnings, great future.

    AMAT has $6+billion in share buyback authorization and it is days like today, when it drops despite delivering a brilliant earnings report, that you hope they buy back shares.

    My guess is that AMAT will double its dividend within the next year. Its earning nearly $2/quarter, it can afford a dividend of nearly $2 per year.

    I can't rationalize a share price this low. This is among the cheapest high tech stocks in the world, along with $KLAC, $LRCX and a few others who play big in this space. PEG ratio of 0.2?!!!! Forward PE of 15-ish. Strong balance sheet. Huge growth opportunities as AI starts to take hold. And numerous major nations deciding they're under-invested in IC technology.

    The story couldn't be better and the shares have rarely been cheaper.
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    Once again, AMAT hits the $140 area and gets rejected. Happened in April, in early June, in late June and now again in August.

    Still think the prospects are terrific, but what could they possibly say in their earnings which would get this thing to breakout?

    Even the Micron story (memory pricing softening) doesn't really add up. Micron just reported their order filling time is at a record high, 20 weeks, meaning they aren't keeping up with demand. How does 'not keeping up with demand' = 'weakness ahead'?

    I get a sense the market is wanting to pounce on bad news for $LRCX, $KLAC, $AMAT and others -- as if they want to get ahead of some big downward spiral. But that isn't coming, demand is explosive and huge new markets are still early. 5G phones have barely begun to sell. Autonomous driving is a few years from adding massive new demand. Computational medicine is bigger than almost any chip market ever -- and that's coming, too.

    The markets can't drive it down too much while the results are stellar. But forward P/E in the mid-teens makes zero sense. Not when the upside is so large. So I expect continued aggressive buybacks and stellar results. And perhaps some day, the fearful will realize that chips are essential to the future, and stop the downward pressure on these excellent companies.
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    So Lam reported a quarter below expectations. And the problem was ... supply chain issues. AMAT said they were having issues last in their last quarterly report, ASML said they were having their own issues with the supply chain just a few weeks ago.

    So are the supply chain issues a problem? I don't think so. They are a blessing in disguise.

    It means $AMAT, $LRCX, $ASML can't ramp up production at some extreme rate. They are being forced into a ramp which is incremental. The risk of a capacity glut (which I never bought as an issue for at least 2-3 years), is less likely than ever.

    Demand remains enormous and demand is the most important factor in pretty much every business. Filling the gap between supply and demand will take a long while. While this occurs, all these companies will steadily increase sales and (most likely) margins.

    These companies simply can't meet demand right now, but for how long? This isn't getting fixed in 2022. And probably not in 2023.

    The big worry is that these semi capex companies will yo-yo between thru the roof demand and no demand at all (the old line -- "will we be on mandatory overtime right up until the layoffs?"). The supply chain challenges severely limit the chances of excess fab capacity in the next few years.

    Sometimes bad news is bad news. The LRCX report wasn't bad news, though some headlines will interpret it that way. A more careful look paints a clearer picture.

    AMAT, Lam & ASML are all telling the same story (not sure if $KLAC will say something similar, but I expect they will). They are limited by the supply chains in how fast they can produce systems to meet demand. That's about the best possible "problem" they could have
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    So a few months back, $AMAT signals they are having supply chain issues and the stock takes a hit. And then the market forgets about it, and AMAT, $LRCX, $ASML, $KLAC all ride higher along with a bunch of other semi capex sorts.

    In the last 10 days or so, ASML, LRCX, KLAC all said they were dealing with supply chain issues (turns out, it wasn't just an AMAT issue) and each issued a forecast below what Wall St had hoped. And each time one company would miss, the entire sector would get slammed. They all got slammed multiple times for a single problem. The same problem.

    ASML is down over 100 points. On the day ASML earnings came out, Lam dropped 50 & AMAT dropped 15!! Then Lam dropped another 75 over the next week and when they announced earnings, it dropped another 40. Slammed multiple times for the same problem. After Lam announced, both KLAC & AMAT dropped another 4%.

    Friday will be an interesting day, we'll see if the market is finally "getting it". After market close today, KLAC said the next quarter would be down a bit. Will they get punished again? They are already down 80 points since the ASML report. Will Lam and AMAT get hit again?

    Each company has gotten punished multiple times. No doubt, when AMAT reports in mid-Feb, they'll tell the same story, that supply chains are limiting near term production. Will the share price get punished again? Its already down 20%.

    Thing is, the chip shortage can't be fixed without massive investment in chip making operations. And repeatedly, we're being told this is a multi-year fix.

    Now Lam and AMAT sit at forward PE of around 15, KLAC a tad higher and ASML closer to 30 (the benefit of being a quasi monopoly in an areas of desperate need). Given the massive long-term demand, these are all dirt cheap compared to almost everything else out there.

    The old saying is the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I guess. But to be clear, it is irrational to mete out multiple punishments for the same issue. The result is the semi capex suppliers have an long runway for strong earnings, even if each expects the upcoming quarter to be down slightly. These companies are on sale. Big time.
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    Guess I missed this one yesterday. TSLA down 8% today because of below expectation forecast. Why is their forecast below expectation? Musk was quite clear: they can't get all the chips they need.

    I get why the chip capex companies are going down at the moment because the news flow says they won't make as much money in the near term as the market hoped. That's a relative move.

    What makes no sense is where these companies are an absolute basis. $LRCX, $AMAT are trading around a 15 PE, even though can't come close to meeting demand. $ASML is a bit higher PE since they are a quasi monopoly. But still not that high given the entire chip business is gated by ASML shipments. And they can't ramp up as fast as they'd like because .... supply chain.

    Applied, Lam, KLA stocks should be 25-30 forward PE because they are so essential and this demand >> supply is almost certain to continue for at least 2 more years (ASML said that'd be about the minimum before it sees balance returning).
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    $LRCX validated some analyst fears, that the demand for semi capex has peaked and will start to decline. They've been itching to call a peak in the cycle.

    I don't think this is the case. At all.

    As best as I can tell, the industry capacity is constrained and its one company which is the primary constraint -- $ASML. If you can't get another litho tool, you don't need another etcher, or implanter -- the stuff Lam and Applied sell.

    But the demand for chips remains incredibly strong.

    Imbalances between chip types are causing modest oversupply. For example, PC capacity is constrained by certain 'limited availability chips', but they are not memory chips. So memory chips are not being ordered to fit demand, but to fit what can be made in the constrained world. Memory-maker Micron will see a sharp increase in demand for its chips once these 'limited availability chips' increase capacity. Same thing exists with vehicles. The 'limited availability chips' determines how many chips a company actually needs right now. It may be just 1 chip out of 100 which is constraining capacity, but that's enough. What happens when that 1 chip adds capacity? The demand for the other 99 will go back up in a hurry.

    Semi capex may take some hits from this issue (there may also be some supply chain issues Lam, ASML, AMAT face). But this is actually a case where the "problem" is really too much demand coupled with some specific supply imbalances, not too little.

    So ASML is the key semi capex player in meeting demand since its the constraint. But every ASML litho tool delivery means more etchers, implanters, etc. My sense is the ASML tools have long lead times since certain items are likely to be very long lead time (EUV optics don't come from Lenscrafters ...)

    The underlying story couldn't be more bullish. Some analysts think they see a peak. But given the structural demand for chips, they are wrong.
  • H
    Harmony
    $MKSI conversation
    I have watched all investor master classes from $AMAT. I do really recommend them to get a feeling of what trends are shaping up in WFE market. What I understood is that variability of equipment and steps to produce modern chips is increasing. There are new types of processes, which are getting traction like epitaxy, ion implantation, selective etching etc. All these processes are about adding or removing materials to wafers in vacuum. $MKSI is a company, whose main clients are $LRCX and $AMAT and they provide them with subsystems that are used to deliver or remove that material in vacuum. If $LRCX and $AMAT will be growing so will $MKSI's business. But I prefer this company as investment because it is simply cheaper right now and at 1.5-2 times better multiples.
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    Saw the Cramer bit on semi cap eqpt. He was very positive towards the sector, saying this was going to grow and grow, as opposed to creating excess capacity then taking a hit when overcapacity happens. His expectation is the digitization of pretty much everything is not so much a trend, it is the way of the world. And it'll continue for a long time.

    Which, to be blunt, is pretty much saying what I've been saying up here, too. So many things demand chips these days, and the need for compute is increasing exponentially. Just look at vehicles, they'll need the equivalent of 2 computers to handle autonomous driving (the need for redundancy is essential given the vehicle is making all the choices). That'll be 4x the chip count now.

    For reasons which were pretty weak, he stated a preference for $LRCX over $AMAT, $ASML and $KLAC. But clearly, he was blessing the sector as much as any one stock.
  • B
    Bobby
    Lam Research Corporation
    Just take a step back and take a look at what is going on....fabless companies $NVDA $AMD and now $QCOM all reporting incredible ER's with tremendous growth WITH very positive guidance going forward. Semi manufactures like $TSM $TXN all reporting beats with significant growth and constantly guiding upwards with positive outlooks going forward. Other manufacturers like $QRVO and $SWKS will likely reports similar strong ER's this week. Semi equipment companies like $ASML (destroyed earnings) $LRCX $AMAT are and will likely continue reporting even more significant earnings and growth due to unprecedented demand. The semiconductor industry is looking outstanding right now and has an even brighter future. ER's are reflecting this nicely. I'm severely bullish on this industry right now and many of the stocks, particularly semi equipment stocks are looking like value plays ($AMAT and $LRCX especially undervalued).
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    The downgrade is exactly the sort of thing some analysts have been sitting on. They are all trying to catch the inflection point, when the chip mfg biz goes from under-capacity to meeting capacity to over-capacity. So some will jump to downgrades once they perceive we hit peak under-capacity. The first one to jump is the Susquehanna guy. But here's the thing. Even if he is right that we're around the peak under-capacity, it is not at all obvious we'll get to meeting capacity anytime soon. Let alone go too far and have the chip biz hit over-capacity, which is the point equipment orders will slow/delay.

    Today we have chip shortages in plenty of places. Many are forecasting it'll take a year to fully catch up. And by then, we'll have 5G phones hitting their major growth window, as 5G becomes more useful. Autonomous driving is a few more years out, but after the 5G cycle peaks, these new vehicles will suck up chips at double the rate of most of today's vehicles. And the trend towards digitization isn't slowing down even a little bit. Indeed, its now the ante for most businesses -- if you don't digitize much of your operation, no one will invest in it. And yeah, computational medicine will soak up chips like nothing else in history because biology is really complicated and the computing horsepower needed to solve things like cancers and autoimmune diseases is staggering.

    All this isn't to suggest that there will never be another cloudy day for AMAT. But they'll be few and far between. And they won't last long either. Because ship consumption is going to grow enormously and for a long time. And they need $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $ASML, etc to do this.

    As for AMAT, you can this set-up for a below market multiple!! Geez ...
  • B
    Bobby
    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
    The entire semiconductor sector appears to be under fire from so called "analysts" that are actually jack-of-all-trades but masters of NONE. Their archaic thinking in traditional cyclical rotations of the semiconductor industry is forcing stocks prices lower. Even when most chip and equipment companies are crushing earnings, are producing at max capacity, increasing prices, and raising guidance. Global demand would be high regardless of any shortage. 5G, AI, EV, crypto, data centers, cloud tech, gaming, eSports were already ensuring this growth and demand. Now add the new infrastructure spending and the global "arms race" that's taking place. We are in the beginning of a super cycle like never seen, likely lasting many years. Semiconductors are the new #1 global resource....the new oil.
    (Fabless) companies like $NVDA, $AMD, $MRVL, $AVGO, $QCOM design the most advanced and sought after semiconductors in the world. (Fab-owning) companies like $TSM, $TXN, $ADI, $QRVO manufacture the chips. Companies like $AMAT, $ASML, $LRCX, $KLAC, $UCTT, $ICHR make all the equipment and materials used by those chip manufacturers. High tide raises all boats! .....and many of these companies are already currently undervalued. GLTA
  • H
    Harmony
    $KLAC conversation
    Listening to bloomberg... They often mention semi equipment companies $LRCX, $AMAT, $ASML but never $KLAC. Even from daily pre-market you can judge that this company is not well-known. Even though it outperforms them in quarterly growth and forecasts too and analysts are more bullish here than there... I guess we need more time and more outperforming quarters before market notices that metrology is outperforming.
  • G
    Gary A
    $NVDA conversation
    If it looks, feel, tastes and smells like mid-summer market churn, it is mid-summer market churn which has the appearance in many sectors and price consolidation which is a price correction against time. Most semiconductor and semiconductor equipment stocks are range bound and have been for a trading range since late April/Early May 2021 with $TXN, $ADI, $AMAT, $LRCX, $AMD, $KLAC and many others as examples. Enjoy your summer and seek buying opportunities near the lower end of the price range bound from early May onward. There is nothing new here just typical summer market action. The demand for semiconductors will only increase with time and that demand curve doesn't appear linear but rather more exponential.
  • B
    Bobby
    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
    Semiconductor sector is hot! Don't let the intermittent pullbacks sway your positions. Global semiconductor sales are up big. Up 30% yoy and over 3% month to month, according to SIA. Just about all semiconductor and equipment companies are offering strong guidance going forward with no indication of weakness anytime soon. Most claiming they see the shortage lasting through 2022 ($MRVL the most recent). This shortage combined with the global expansion taking place AND the evolution of the industry's super "cycle" indicates a strong long term outlook for the industry. Who stands to benefit the most? TSM of course. Along with $ASML with their monopoly on advanced EUV that's in great demand by anyone wanting to compete in producing advanced semiconductors. $AMAT is the most diversified equipment provider. $KLAC is the dominant PDC supplier. MRVL for (5G and Data Center) infrastructure. $LRCX for memory. $ICHR and $UCTT are extreme value plays right now as well that benefit from having the companies listed above as customers. GLTA!